Virtual reality is widely associated with gaming, but some believe it could evolve into the next computing platform, affect all of our senses, and grow into a multibillion-dollar industry — if consumers are willing to adopt it.
The future of VR could be our next computing platform
It will take a while for VR to gain traction
VR is still in its very early stages, and it’s likely that it will take many more years before it becomes mainstream — Zuckerberg has put the timeframe at five to 10 years.
Adding to the slow pace is the fact that some hyped technologies, like Magic Leap’s AR headset, have recently been found to be behind schedule. The Information reported (subscription required) at the end of the last year that Magic Leap — which has raised $1.4 billion in funding in about three years — pivoted away from some of its earlier fiber optic technologies and now trails the image quality of Microsoft’s HoloLens.
And even the HoloLens, which currently costs $3,000 and is mainly for developers, has sold only thousands of units. Roger Walkden, Microsoft’s HoloLens commercial lead, recently told The Inquirer that, “We’re not trying to sell hundreds of thousands or millions or anything, it’s expensive, and it’s not in huge numbers. So we’re happy with the level of sales that we’ve got — I can’t tell you anything about the numbers, but it’s in thousands, not hundreds of thousands, and that’s fine. That’s all we need.”
While Microsoft may be pleased with those numbers, it’s still a clear indicator that VR and AR have a long way go before they become mainstream.
And then there’s the recent news that Facebook’s Oculus is shutting down 200 of its 500 demo sites within Best Buy stores, reportedly due to the lack of public interest. The future may be virtual, but we’re getting there slowly.
It offers a new way of seeing our world
Jason Pontin, the editor of MIT’s Technology Review, recently interviewed Jessica Brillhart, a filmmaker for virtual reality at Google, and talked with her about how VR is currently used and what it might become in the near future. When asked if people will eventually use VR to record home videos, Brillhart responded that we probably would but that it might not be a good thing.
Virtual reality could eventually impact all of the senses
Right now, VR is limited to a user’s visual and auditory senses, but in the future this will likely be enhanced. The general manager of Dell’s gaming PC manufacturer Alienware, Frank Azor, said this in an interview with TIME last year:
Once you begin catering to the rest of the senses, like what we feel body-wise, temperature-wise, and smell, the reality factor of virtual reality [becomes] stronger and the virtual piece begins to fade.
The market potential for both AR and VR could be huge
The virtual reality market was worth about $1.9 billion in 2016, but that’s expected to climb to $22.4 billion by 2020. Those numbers include both software and hardware sales. And when you factor in AR sales, the market skyrockets even higher. The combined AR and VR market will be worth $121 billion by 2021, according to Digi-Capital.
The good news for investors is that companies are just getting started with AR and VR, which means the opportunities to benefit haven’t passed. There are still plenty of unknowns, but as more companies rally around these new technologies and make the necessary investments to get them off of the ground, we’re likely to see the future of AR and VR develop substantially over the next few years.
What are your thoughts on this matter?